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ECB, US Jobs Data, & NFP Friday

ECB, US Jobs Data, & NFP Friday

This week, all eyes turn to US jobs data and Powell’s testimony, pivotal in gauging the Fed’s trajectory. Despite potential dollar weakness from an NFP miss, forex pairs focus may lean towards crosses over dollar pairs. EUR braces for ECB, while GBP awaits fiscal cues. China’s policy direction during the two sessions could sway the AUD more than the yuan. Swiss CPI could impact March rate cut speculations, while NZD’s carry appeal remains a steady beacon amidst the flux. Stay vigilant as the market interprets these key events, shaping FX trajectories in the week ahead.

A surprisingly strong NFP report could trigger a shift in market pricing, convincing skeptical traders that the Fed will indeed wait longer before removing policy restrictions. The possibility of a delayed easing cycle could lead to an upward move in the U.S. dollar and yields, reversing today’s market direction.

During the Asian session today, the AUD/USD pair exhibited a modest rise, up by 0.32% to trade at 0.65846. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony hinted at prospective rate reductions, amplifying USD’s softness. Meanwhile, turbulence stemming from regional banking concerns in the US has investors speculating about an accelerated timeline for rate cuts.

USD’s decline, spurred by lower Treasury yields, echoes Powell’s optimism about avoiding a US recession, yet his remarks reveal a guarded stance on inflation. With further commentary from Powell due Thursday, markets remain watchful.

The forthcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) announcement, expected to report 198,000 new jobs against the previous 353,000, alongside critical unemployment data projecting a steady rate of 3.7%, is set to spark significant market volatility.

Have your trading charts ready!

Thursday 7th March High Impact Events

• 15.15 – Europe – Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

• 15.45 – Europe – ECB Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

• 17.00 – US – Fed Chair Powell Testifies 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 8th March High Impact Events

• 15.30 – Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

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