The Week Ahead: 6th – 10th May 2024

Overview for the Week Ahead

Highlights of the Week

Fed speakers, US labor market data, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers to influence the Fed rate path.
The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver monetary policy decisions.
Services PMI numbers from China and Europe also need consideration.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 will influence buyer demand for the US dollar. After the US Jobs Report, upward trends in jobless claims could support bets on a September Fed rate cut.

On Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers for May also warrant investor attention. Weaker consumer confidence could signal downward trends in consumer spending. A pullback in consumer spending could dampen demand-driven inflation and allow the Fed to pursue a more dovish rate path. Investors must also consider the sub-components, including inflation expectations.

After the recent Jobs Report, investors should also monitor FOMC member speeches. Views on inflation, the economic outlook, and the timing of Fed rate cuts could move the dial.

With the markets betting on a June ECB rate cut, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes from April will garner investor interest on Friday (May 10).

Investors should also monitor ECB commentary throughout the week. ECB Executive Board members Luis de Guindos (Thurs), Piero Cipollone (Thurs/Fri), Elizabeth McCaul (Thurs), and Frank Elderson will speak.

Views on the ECB rate path beyond June could make the markets move.

The Bank of England monetary policy decision will be pivotal this week.

On Thursday (May 9), economists expect the BoE to leave interest rates at 5.25%. The vote count, the MPC Meeting Minutes, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech will move the dial.

On Friday (May 10), UK GDP, trade, production numbers, and trade data will be in focus. The GDP and production numbers will likely impact the BoE rate path more.

With the Bank of England in focus, investors should track Bank of England commentary. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill (Thurs/Fri) and Monetary Policy Committee member Sawati Dhingra to speak.

Australian retail sales figures for March will draw investor interest on Tuesday (May 7). Upward revisions to the preliminary numbers could influence the RBA rate path and the Aussie dollar.

However, the RBA interest rate decision will be the focal point for investors. Hotter-than-expected consumer and producer price inflation figures fueled speculation about an RBA rate hike. The markets expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 5.35%. However, the RBA press conference will garner investor interest.

Service sector PMI numbers from Japan will put the Japanese Yen in focus on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan hopes that a pickup in services employment, new orders, and prices could drive inflationary pressures. An upward revision to the preliminary number could influence buyer appetite for the Yen. However, investors should consider the sub-components.

On Friday (May 10), household spending figures from Japan will also draw investor attention. An unexpected increase in household spending could fuel investor bets on a Bank of Japan interest rate hike.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 6^th May

No High Impact Events

Tuesday 7^th May

07.30 – Australia – Cash Rate, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

Wednesday 8^th May

No High Impact Events

Thursday 9^th May

14.00 – UK – BoE Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Official Bank Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

14.30 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

20.01 – US – 30 Year Bond Auction

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 10^th May

09.00 – UK – GDP m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

15.30 – Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

17.00 – US – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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