The Week Ahead: 4th – 9th December 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead

Eurozone inflation will carry on declining in the months ahead but at a slower pace, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel was quoted as telling Cypriot newspaper Kathimerini on Sunday.

Eurozone inflation eased to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a third straight month and fuelling market speculation that European Central Bank (ECB) rates could come down quicker than the bank now guides.

Nagel added that the outlook for inflation was tempered by a weakening of dampening base effects and the phasing out of measures to cap high energy prices in many European countries. He also pointed to an expected continuation of strong wage growth.

The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, fell nearly 3% in November, weighed down by the downward correction in U.S. yields triggered by bets that the Federal Reserve has finished raising borrowing costs and would move to sharply reduce them in 2024 as part of a strategy to prevent a hard landing.

While some Fed officials have been dismissive of the idea of aggressive rate cuts in the near future, others have not entirely ruled out the possibility. Despite some mixed messages, policymakers have been unequivocal about one aspect: they’ll rely on the totality of data to guide their decisions.

Given the Fed’s high sensitivity to incoming information, the November U.S. employment report, due for release next Friday, will take on added significance and play a critical role in the formulation of monetary policy at upcoming meetings. In terms of estimates, non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have grown by 170,000 last month, following an increase of 150,000 in October, resulting in an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.9%. For its part, average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% m-o-m, with the related yearly reading easing to 4.0% from 4.1% previously.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 4^th December

09.30 – Switzerland – CPI m/m Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses. 

Tuesday 5^th December

05.30 – Australia – Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

17.00 – US – ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 6^th December

02.30 – Australia – GDP q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

13.00 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

15.15 – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

17.00 – Canada – BoC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

Thursday 7^th December

15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 8^th December

15.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

17.00 – US – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Saturday 9^th December

03.30 – China – CPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses. 

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

We are Errante. Trading made personal.