The Week Ahead: 30th October – 3rd November 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead

Investors are watching for signs that the conflict in the Middle East may be escalate over the weekend, potentially ratcheting up volatility as investors await a Federal Reserve meeting and key U.S. data in the week ahead.

The Federal Reserve is set to give its latest monetary policy statement on Wednesday, while Apple’s quarterly results highlights another busy week of corporate reports.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bearish as investors have locked their eyes on the Bank of England (BOE), expecting the central bank to wrap up its tightening cycle.

The pound ended the week lower due to market apprehension amid the ongoing Middle East war, which boosted the dollar. All eyes are now focusing on the upcoming Bank of England meeting. Currently, the pound is trading near a six-month low of 1.2039, reached earlier in October.

Notably, a UK jobs report on Tuesday indicated a decrease in inflationary pressures within the labour market. This data caused the pound to drop, as it reinforced expectations that the BoE would maintain its current interest rates at the upcoming meeting.

Moreover, the British currency was vulnerable to global trends, particularly the dollar’s strength.

Next week, GBP/USD traders will watch monetary policy meetings from the US and the UK. Markets are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in November. Moreover, they are pricing an 80% chance of the same happening in December.

Meanwhile, several reports this week confirmed the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its current rates during its policy meeting next week. The BoE will likely keep the rates unchanged at 5.25% on November 2, as per the consensus among most economists.

Finally, market participants will focus on US employment data, which might show continued strength in the labour market.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 30th October

All-Day – Europe – German Prelim CPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

10.00 – Europe – Spanish Flash CPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

11.00 – Europe – German Prelim GDP q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

Tuesday 31^st October

03.30 – China – Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses. 

Tentative – Japan – BoJ Outlook Report, BoJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ Press Conference

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses. 

14.30 – Canada – GDP m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

14.30 – US – Employment Cost Index q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

16.00 – US – CB Consumer Confidence

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

23.45 – New Zealand – Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

Wednesday 1^st November

14.15 – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

16.00 – US – ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

20.00 – US – Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

20.30 – US – FOMC Press Conference

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Thursday 2^nd November

09.30 – Switzerland – CPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses. 

14.00 – UK – BoE Monetary Policy Report, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, Official Bank Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

14.30 – UK – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

14.30 – US –Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 3^rd November

14.30 – Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

14.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

16.00 – US – ISM Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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