The Week Ahead: 22nd – 26th April 2024

Overview for the Week Ahead

Highlights of the Week

US private sector PMIs, inflation, and US consumer confidence will further influence investor bets on 2024 Fed rate cuts.
Service sector PMI figures for the Eurozone will further influence investor expectations of a June ECB interest rate cut.
On Friday, the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision will draw investor attention amidst ongoing threats of an intervention.

As April fast draws to a close, investors will keenly eye several stock market triggers in the fourth week of the month with the ongoing January-March quarter results for fiscal 2023-24 (Q4FY24), domestic and global macroeconomic data, developments around general elections 2024, impact of the Israel-Iran conflict, crude oil prices, US bond yields, and global cues.

US core durable goods orders will draw investor interest on Wednesday. Economists expect the US to avoid a recession. Better-than-expected numbers would signal a robust US economy.

On Thursday, Q1 GDP and jobless claims figures will garner investor interest. Barring an unexpected spike in US jobless claims, the GDP number will likely have more influence.

The Personal Income and Outlays Report and consumer sentiment numbers will be in focus on Friday. Amid fading bets on multiple Fed rate cuts, the inflation figures will warrant investor attention. Hotter-than-expected numbers will influence the Fed rate path.

Preliminary private sector PMI numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone warrant investor attention on Tuesday. The Services PMIs will likely impact the EUR/USD more, accounting for over 60% of the euro area economy. Investors should also consider the sub-components, including prices, employment, and new orders.

On Wednesday, the Ifo Business Climate Index will draw investor attention. An upward trend would further support expectations of an improving macroeconomic environment.

The German economy will be in the spotlight again on Thursday. German GfK Consumer Climate numbers could signal consumer spending trends.

With rising bets on a June ECB interest rate cut, ECB commentary and the ECB reports also need consideration.

The ECB will release the Economic Bulletin and Consumer Expectations Survey Results on Thursday and Friday.

On Tuesday, UK private sector PMIs will put the Pound in focus. The Services PMI will impact the Pound more, accounting for over 70% of the UK economy. After mixed signals from the Bank of England vis-à-vis interest rate cuts, investors should consider the subcomponents, including prices.

On Monday, preliminary private sector PMIs for April could influence the Japanese Yen and the Bank of Japan. The Services PMI will likely impact the Japanese Yen more, with the BoJ eyeing the services sector as a contributor to demand-driven inflation.

Inflation figures for Tokyo will warrant investor attention on Friday. Softer-than-expected numbers could enable the BoJ to leave interest rates at zero for longer.

However, the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision and press conference (Fri) will be the focal point. Forward guidance on plans to exit a zero-interest rate environment will influence buyer appetite for the Japanese Yen. Investors should also monitor intervention chatter.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 22^nd April

No High Impact Events

Tuesday 23^rd April

From 10.15 – Europe – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

11.30 – UK – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

16.45 – US – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI