The Week Ahead: 11th – 15th March 2024

Overview for the Week Ahead

Highlights of the Week

US inflation and consumer confidence will impact investor bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut.
The UK economy will be in the spotlight, with labour market and GDP figures likely to affect the BoE rate path.
Economic indicators from Japan and Bank of Japan chatter also need consideration as investors raise bets on an April pivot.

US inflation and consumer confidence will impact investor bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut.

The UK economy will be in the spotlight, with labor market and GDP figures likely to affect the BoE rate path.

Economic indicators from Japan and Bank of Japan chatter also need consideration as investors raise bets on an April pivot.

On Tuesday, the US CPI Report will warrant investor attention. After the US Jobs Report, softer-than-expected inflation figures could refuel bets on a May Fed rate cut.

Producer prices and retail sales will also need consideration on Thursday. Softer producer prices could signal a weakening demand environment. However, a larger-than-expected rise in retail sales could test any expectations of a weakening demand environment.

On Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures for March will draw investor attention. The higher unemployment rate must impact consumer confidence to signal a pullback in consumer spending. Investors must consider the sub-components, including consumer and inflation expectations.

Inflation figures from Germany (Tues) will kick-start the week for the EUR/USD. Downward revisions to preliminary numbers for February would support investor bets on a June ECB rate cut.

On Wednesday, industrial production numbers for the Eurozone will garner investor interest. Recession risks linger, with the German economy struggling to reboot. Weaker-than-expected numbers could fuel fears of a Eurozone economic recession.

Finalised inflation numbers from France will need consideration on Friday. Consumer prices remain an area of interest after ECB Staff lowered inflation and growth forecasts for 2024.

With inflation in focus, investors must track ECB member commentary. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane is on the calendar to speak on Friday.

On Tuesday, UK labor market data will influence buyer demand for the Pound. Softer-than-expected average earnings and a higher unemployment rate could influence bets on a Bank of England rate cut.

However, the GDP Report for January also needs consideration. A resilient UK economy could enable the BoE to keep rates elevated to ensure a sustainable fall in inflation toward the target.

On Friday, house price figures will draw investor interest. Downward trends in house prices could signal a deteriorating macroeconomic environment.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 11^th March

No High Impact Events

Tuesday 12^th March

09.00 – UK – Claimant Count Change

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

14.30 – US – Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y