Errante’s The Week Ahead: 23^rd – 27^th February 2026 

Highlights of the week 

• US inflation risk returns late week through PPI, keeping front end rates and the US dollar as the main volatility engine. 

• Eurozone data is Germany led and can still move EUR positioning even when the broader FX tape is USD driven. 

• USDJPY and EURUSD are both sitting in technically sensitive zones where one clean macro surprise can convert a range into a trend. 

What Now 

Markets are still trading a rates first regime, so the cleanest way to think about next week is simple. Any upside surprise in US price pressures tends to lift short-dated yields and support the dollar, while any downside surprise tends to do the opposite. The calendar is not dense, but it is sharp. The week ends with US PPI and Chicago PMI, which is enough to force a repricing if the data conflicts with the current disinflation narrative. 

Tuesday’s US consumer confidence print is mainly a risk sentiment catalyst. If confidence improves meaningfully, it tends to support the soft-landing narrative and can stabilise equities and cyclicals. That often keeps safe havens contained and supports higher beta FX through sentiment, unless yields jump at the same time. If confidence deteriorates sharply, it can pull risk appetite lower and make JPY and gold behave better, especially if yields also soften. 

Wednesday brings a cluster of Europe risk. German GDP and euro area CPI are both second tier compared with US inflation, but they matter because EUR has a habit of reacting to inflation surprises through ECB path pricing. A CPI print that confirms disinflation keeps the EUR leg dependent on what the dollar does. A CPI surprise that feels sticky can revive the relative rates argument and give EUR a window of support, especially on the crosses. 

Thursday’s jobless claims are your weekly high frequency labour check. In a rates first market, a claims trend that looks too low can reinforce the idea that wage pressure risks remain, and that keeps the US front end supported. A claims drift higher can do the opposite and reduce pressure on the dollar into Friday. 

Friday is the main macro risk day. US PPI matters as pipeline inflation. It rarely matters for its own sake. It matters for what it does to rate path confidence, which then shows up in the dollar and in gold through real yield expectations. The second leg is Chicago PMI, which is a growth pulse and can reinforce or soften whatever PPI does. If PPI is hot and PMI is firm, the dollar usually gets the cleaner bid. If PPI is soft and PMI rolls over, the dollar usually softens, and gold often finds support. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+2) 

Monday, 23^rd February 2026 

• All Day – China (CNY) – Chinese New Year Holiday 

• All Day – Japan (JPY) – Emperor’s Birthday Holiday 

Tuesday, 24^th February 2026 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – Conference Board Consumer Confidence Feb 

Wednesday, 25^th February 2026 

• 04:00 – United States (USD) – US President Speaks 

• 09:00 – Germany (EUR) – German GDP QoQ Q4 

• 12:00 – Eurozone (EUR) – CPI YoY Jan 

Thursday, 26^th February 2026 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims 

Friday, 27^th February 2026 

• 15:00 – Germany (EUR) – German CPI MoM Feb 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – PPI MoM Jan 

• 16:45 – United States (USD) – Chicago PMI Feb 

Market Insights Key Charts to Watch 

EURUSD Daily 

Current technical condition 
EURUSD is consolidating inside a rising channel, but the latest leg is a pullback from the February spike high. Price is trading below the channel midline and below the short-term moving average cluster, which keeps the near-term tone corrective even though the broader structure is still higher lows. The Bollinger envelope has started to compress again after the February expansion, which fits a market that is waiting for a macro trigger. 

The implied volatility oscillator is rising again, which tells you markets are paying up for movement into late week risk. BBW is low to mid and no longer expanding, which supports a scenario of range trade until Friday, then a potential breakout attempt if PPI surprises. 

The February rally created a visible liquidity pool above the 1.19 handle. The rejection from that zone suggests buy side liquidity was taken and price is now rotating lower to rebalance and hunt sell side liquidity around prior swing lows in the mid 1.17s and low 1.17s. A clean break and daily close below the mid 1.17 area increases the probability of a deeper mean reversion toward the lower channel boundary. 

Key levels for EURUSD 

• Resistance zone 1.1890 to 1.1929 

• Intermediate resistance 1.1828 

• Pivot zone 1.1766 to 1.1764 

• Support zone 1.1721 

• Deeper support 1.1665 

• Stretch support 1.1603 

Main scenario 
Sideways to slightly lower trade persists early week as markets wait for US inflation signals. A failure to reclaim 1.1828 keeps the path of least resistance pointing toward 1.1721 and then 1.1665. A decisive move through 1.1603 would imply the channel support failed and the trend is being challenged.  

Alternative scenario 
If US data softens and yields ease, EURUSD can squeeze higher back toward 1.1828. A daily close above 1.1890 opens the door for a retest of 1.1929, with a potential extension if risk sentiment is constructive. 

USDJPY Daily 

Current technical condition 
USDJPY remains in a broader uptrend, but price is in a recovery phase after a sharp February drawdown. The rebound has carried the pair back toward the mid 155 area, which is technically important because it sits near the 61.8 retracement of the last downswing and close to the moving average cluster. 

Momentum and volatility read 
Implied volatility remains elevated relative to recent months, which is consistent with a market that is still sensitive to rates and headlines. BBW is not expanding aggressively, which argues for choppy mean-reversion trade rather than a clean trend day after day. 

The February selloff likely swept sell side liquidity below prior swing points before snapping back. This is a common stop run and revert pattern in a yield driven pair. The recovery is now probing a zone where sell side participants often defend, because it is a logical re-entry area for trend sellers who missed the first leg down. The next directional move likely depends on whether US rates re accelerate. 

Key levels for USDJPY 

• Support zone 152.26 

• First resistance 153.53 

• Pivot zone 155.59 to 155.28 

• Resistance zone 157.65 

• Upside extension levels 159.11 then 160.98 

Main scenario 
Range with an upward bias persists as long as price holds above 152.26. A sustained hold above 155.59 increases the probability of a push toward 157.65, especially if US inflation data supports higher short-dated yields. 

Alternative scenario 
If US data disappoints and yields slip, USDJPY can fail near 155.59 and rotate lower back toward 153.53. A daily close below 152.26 would be a structural warning and could open a deeper pullback phase. 

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