Errante’s The Week Ahead: 16th – 20th June 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• Central Bank Trio: BoJ, SNB, and BoE rate decisions will set the tone for global FX volatility and drive major G10 currency moves. 

• US FOMC and Projections: The Fed’s updated economic outlook and rate statement on Wednesday are the pivotal risk events for all markets. 

• UK and Eurozone CPI: Key inflation prints for GBP and EUR will shape monetary policy expectations and next wave of trends. 

What Now? 

A pivotal week awaits global markets, with a cluster of central bank decisions and high-impact inflation data set to recalibrate risk sentiment across asset classes. 

The Fed’s FOMC meeting (Wednesday, 21:00) will command global attention. Although consensus expects rates to be held at 4.50%, the market focus is on the updated economic projections and the tone of the statement. Recent US jobs data have allayed fears of imminent recession, but inflation remains sticky and wage growth resilient.  

Money markets have trimmed bets on Fed cuts for 2025, now expecting perhaps two cuts instead of three. Traders will dissect the “dot plot” for signs of a hawkish or dovish tilt. Treasury yields and the US dollar could see sharp swings depending on the Fed’s forward guidance, while equity volatility may spike. 

UK and Eurozone CPI readings (Wednesday 9:00 & 12:00) will be equally decisive. UK inflation is expected to re-accelerate to 3.5% y/y, while Eurozone CPI is forecast to dip to 1.9%. Markets will react to any deviation as the BoE and ECB are both at a crossroads. The BoE (Thursday 14:00) is likely to hold rates at 4.25%, but will likely strike a more cautious tone as inflation remains above target. The ECB’s dovish stance last week leaves the euro vulnerable to another downside if CPI undershoots. 

The BoJ and SNB rate decisions (Tuesday 6:00 & Thursday 10:30) will impact JPY and CHF crosses, especially as both are dealing with different inflationary realities. The SNB may consider another rate hike amid persistent Swiss inflation, while the BoJ is expected to keep policy ultra-loose, keeping the yen under pressure unless Governor Ueda signals a hawkish surprise. 

In commodities and indices, the S&P 500 is rebounding after a short-lived correction, but remains sensitive to policy signals. Gold has retaken its all-time high, propelled by a softer dollar and renewed inflation hedging, while Brent crude’s sharp rally breaks the year-long channel and brings $76 back into play. 

Conclusion 

This week brings a perfect storm of central bank decisions, high-impact inflation data, and fresh projections that will recalibrate the outlook for all major asset classes. Volatility is likely to surge, especially midweek around the FOMC, BoE, and SNB events. Gold, equities, bonds, and FX pairs are all set for trend-defining moves. Remain nimble and disciplined in managing risk—choppy price action and headline-driven swings should be expected. 

Market Events and Announcements 

Monday, 16^th June 2025 

• No high impact event 

Tuesday, 17^th June 2025 

• 6:00 – JPY: BoJ Interest Rate Decision 

• 15:30 – USD: Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) (fcst: 0.30%) 

• 15:30 – USD: Retail Sales (MoM) (May) (fcst: 0.10%) 

Wednesday, 18^th June 2025 

• 9:00 – GBP: CPI (YoY) (May) 

• 12:00 – EUR: CPI (YoY) (May) 

• 15:30 – USD: Initial Jobless Claims 

• 17:30 – USD: Crude Oil Inventories 

• 21:00 – USD: FOMC Economic Projections 

• 21:00 – USD: FOMC Statement 

• 21:00 – USD: Fed Interest Rate Decision 

• 21:30 – USD: FOMC Press Conference 

Thursday, 19^th June 2025 

• All Day – Holiday: United States (Juneteenth) 

• 10:30 – CHF: SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2) 

• 14:00 – GBP: BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) 

• 15:30 – USD: Initial Jobless Claims 

Friday, 20^th June 2025 

• 15:30 – USD: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

Gold (XAU/USD) – Daily 

Gold has surged above the $3,400 barrier, breaking to new all-time highs. The breakout from the ABCD harmonic pattern (see chart) confirms renewed bullish momentum, with the price closing well above the previous highs and upper Bollinger Band. 

Momentum:  

RSI > 60 and MACD rising, with both Stochastic and CCI in overbought territory – confirming strong upward thrust, but signaling possible volatility ahead. 

Forecast:  

Immediate upside targets: $3,448 (141.4% Fib), $3,471 (161.8%), $3,513 (200%), with possible overextension toward $3,543 (227.2%). Short-term pullbacks toward $3,360/$3,319 remain buying opportunities while above $3,293 support. 

Bias:  

Bullish while above $3,360, but be prepared for whipsaws around FOMC. 

Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) – Daily 

Brent has broken above its year-long descending channel and is now trading near $73.40, with momentum indicators in overbought territory. 

Momentum:  

RSI at 74, MACD rising, Stochastics deeply overbought. 

Forecast:  

The breakout targets $75.11 (mid-resistance) and $76.62 (major horizontal resistance). Support now rises to $68.22. Overbought readings suggest risk of near-term pullback, but as long as prices hold above $68.22, bias remains bullish. 

Bias:  

Bullish, but be alert for a corrective dip after such a sharp move. 

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