Trading Analysis – 24th September 2020

Today’s Market Outlook

Europe is now grappling with a second wave of coronavirus infections that could once again wreak significant damage on the region’s economy.

The euro zone, the area that shares the single currency, saw its economy tank by 11.8% in the second quarter of 2020, hit by strict lockdown measures used to contain the spread of the virus.

Economists predicted a rebound in the second half of 2020 but are now questioning those forecasts. Many governments are announcing new lockdown restrictions, or a slowing of reopenings, as they deal with a significant uptick in cases.

“The likelihood of a double dip, i.e. another contraction in the fourth quarter, has increased significantly,” Carsten Brzeski, a chief economist at ING, told CNBC Wednesday.

He expects more regional lockdowns in the coming weeks such as those already seen in Madrid, Spain, and Lyon, France.

The warnings are similar for the U.K., where the government announced Tuesday that pubs and restaurants needed to close early and people should work from home if possible, rather than commuting to the office. The flash composite index for the U.K. came in at 55.7 in September, new data out on Wednesday showed. This was a three-month low and highlighted that the economic recovery has started to lose momentum.

The U.K. reported 6,178 cases, up by 1,252 since Tuesday, as the country grapples with a surge this month. Meanwhile, two German government ministers, Heiko Maas and Peter Altmaier, are now in quarantine after close contacts received positive coronavirus tests.

Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific markets also saw losses, following a drop on Wall Street Wednesday due to uncertainty over the pandemic. 

South Korean stocks dropped on Thursday after reports that South Korea’s defence ministry said North Korea had killed a missing official from the South earlier this week. It marked the first time since July 2008 that a South Korean civilian has been shot dead in North Korea, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap.

U.S. stock futures see volatile moves following sell-off on Wall Street.

Stock futures fell during early morning trading on Thursday, building on Wednesday’s heavy losses that saw the S&P 500 tumble more than 2%.

Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell back into negative territory and declined about 100 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also in negative territory.

The moves came in an uneven session. Earlier, futures opened Wednesday evening in the green, but comments from President Donald Trump that he would not commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the election appeared to hit sentiment.

Stocks continued their September swoon during regular trading hours on Wednesday, with all the major averages registering steep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 525.05 points, or 1.9%, lower, reversing a 176-point gain from earlier in the session. The S&P 500 declined 2.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 3%.

So far in September the S&P 500 has declined 7.5%, while the Dow has shed 5.8%. The Nasdaq Composite has been the relative outperformer, registering a loss of 9.7% as investors rotate out of Big Tech. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet and Microsoft are all down at least 11% in September. Can the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin say something today to alter economic sentiment?

Today’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+3.

15.30 – US Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

17.00 – UK BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

17.00 – Fed Chair Powell Testifies & Treasury Sec. Mnuchin Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses and Gold.

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