Trading Analysis – 23rd July 2020

Today’s Market Outlook

ASX 200 (-1.6%) lagged as cases stayed on an upward trajectory in Australia’s second largest state of Victoria, although miners saw a boost from the rally in precious metals. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) failed to nurse opening losses as several large-cap stocks remained in the red, whilst recent JPY strength further weighed on exporters in the index.  

Today’s escalation between the US and China has seen some initial negative flows in risk assets as the US has demanded China to close their consulate in Houston within 72 hours. China has vowed to retaliate if the US does not change course.  

Stocks are gaining even as further tensions between the world’s largest economies threaten to revive concern over protectionism and trip up the rally in risk assets, which was been powered recently by progress in developing a vaccine against the coronavirus. China may retaliate to the U.S. closing its consulate in Houston by shutting an American consulate in Chengdu or slashing staff at its outpost in Hong Kong, according to media reports. 

In the currency market, the GBP somehow managed to shrug off the negative Brexit news from yesterday as it has remained well supported despite the growing economic and no-deal concerns.  

Today, we have both UK and EU sides providing statements after this week’s round of talks, and we also have a press conference that looks set at 1 PM UK Time with the EU’s negotiator Barnier. 

Today’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+3.

14.00 – BOE Haskel Speech

Traders may now keep eyes on the qualitative catalysts ahead of the speech from a BOE policymaker to gauge the odds of negative rates. Following that the weekly US Jobless Claims, expected to remain unchanged at 1300K, will be the key. 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP crosses.

Coronavirus Status Update 

US cases +57,777 (Prev. +63,201); deaths +473 (prev. +498). California cases +2.4%/+9231 (prev. +1.8%/+6,846); deaths +61 (prev. +9). Arizona cases +2.4%/+3,500 (prev. +1.1%/1,559); deaths +134 (prev. +23); ICU usage 85% (prev. 87%). Florida cases +2.6%/+9,440 (prev. +10,347, prev. 7-day average 3.5%). New York cases +855 (prev. +0.1%/+519); hospitalisations 724 (prev. 716); deaths +2 (prev. +8); positivity rate 1.29% (prev. 1.05%). 

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