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• The Week Ahead: 27th November – 1st December 2023

The Week Ahead: 27th November – 1st December 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead 

Inflation has been a persistent challenge for retailers this year by creating cautious consumers. For weeks ahead of Black Friday, retailers have been encouraging consumers to spend on what is typically considered the busiest and most important day of the year for the industry. 

In response to consumer reticence, retailers seemed to begin promoting their holiday shopping deals earlier than usual, with many major companies offering their deals over a month ahead of Black Friday. 

Consumers spent a record $9.8 billion online on Black Friday, according to data from Adobe Analytics. That’s up 7.5% from last year. 

For the first time, mobile shopping is expected to overtake desktop buying this holiday season, according to Adobe Analytics. More than half of spend online (51.2%) will be on mobile devices. 

Adobe Analytics also found that smartphones accounted for $5.3 billion of all online sales on Black Friday, up 10.4% year over year. Smartphones also accounted for 54% of online sales. One reason is that improved shopping experiences make it easier to make purchases on mobile devices. 

In Europe, there is more evident than in Germany which appears to be on the brink of a double-dip recession and facing immense uncertainty over its budget for next year as it scrambles to patch up finances for the current one. 

UK consumer confidence is also improving, albeit from very weak levels. 

At -24, the Gfk survey is 25 points from last September’s lows, but still some way below all surveys from mid-2013 through to the pandemic. 

Still, the future looks more promising and inflation is now running below wage growth which should continue to support that. 

It could have been a nervy end to the week in oil markets had OPEC+ not pushed back its meeting from this Sunday to next Thursday. Instead, it’s all looking a little calm. 

While I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see leaks or comments over the weekend that still have an impact on the oil price on the open next week, the actual meeting now occurring Thursday could put traders’ minds somewhat at ease. 

Gold continues to dance with $2,000, despite repeatedly failing to break and hold above the psychological resistance zone. 

We saw that on a number of occasions at the end of October and again earlier this week, buoyed on this occasion by a less hawkish Fed and favourable inflation and jobs reports from the US. 

Have your trading charts ready this week! 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT +2. 

Monday 27^th November 

• 17.00 – US – New Home Sales 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Tuesday 28^th November 

• 05.18 – Australia – RBA Gov Bullock Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

• 17.00 – US – CB Consumer Confidence 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Wednesday 29^th November 

• 02.30 – Australia – CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

• 03.00 – New Zealand – Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Rate Statement 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

• 04.00 – New Zealand – RBNZ Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

• All-Day – Europe – German Prelim CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Prelim GDP q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 17.05 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

Thursday 30^th November 

• 03.30 – China – Manufacturing PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.  

• All-Day – OPEC-JMMC Meetings  

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses.  

• 15.30 – Canada – GDP m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Core PCE Price Index m/m, Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 1^st December 

• 15.30 – Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

• 17.00 – US – ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 18.00 – US – Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

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