Highlights of the week

• Markets remain driven by war related inflation risk and elevated energy prices.
• US flash PMIs and UK CPI are the main scheduled macro catalysts.
• Equities stay fragile while the dollar keeps a relative macro advantage.

What Now

Markets are entering next week under the same regime that dominated the previous one. Inflation risk remains the first order driver, while growth data matter mainly through their effect on yields. Higher energy prices, shipping disruption, and uncertainty around the US-Israel war against Iran’s regime continue to tighten financial conditions and keep the market biased toward caution.

For the US, the most relevant question is whether the post-Fed hawkish hold can be maintained. Jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 205,000 in the latest week, reinforcing the message that layoffs remain low even as growth sentiment softens. At the same time, mortgage rates have risen to 6.22 percent, a three-month high, showing how higher yields and war driven inflation concerns are feeding into real economy financing conditions. That combination leaves the dollar supported unless data weaken enough to drag front end yields lower.

Tuesday’s US flash PMIs are the first test of that narrative. If manufacturing and services stabilize above current expectations, the market is likely to read that as resilience under pressure rather than slowdown, which would keep yields supported and make it harder for equities to recover. If the PMI mix softens materially, it can challenge the growth side of the US story, but the move in FX will still depend on whether Treasury yields actually retreat. In this market, yields are the confirmation variable, not just the data surprise itself.

Wednesday’s UK CPI matters more for GBP than for the broader market, but it still fits the same global pattern. The Bank of England surprised markets with a unanimous hold and warned that inflation could rise to around 3.5 percent over the next two quarters if the energy shock persists. February UK public borrowing also came in at 14.3 billion pounds, well above the 8.5 billion pounds expected, underlining that the fiscal backdrop is becoming less supportive just as gilt yields rise. That means a firm CPI print could support sterling through rate expectations, but the support may be limited because the macro mix remains stagflationary rather than growth positive.

US crude inventories on Wednesday and jobless claims on Thursday are secondary, but in this environment they still matter. Oil has eased from the most extreme highs as governments work to restore supply and shipping access, yet Brent was still around 108 dollars on Friday and remains structurally elevated. That means another large inventory draw could quickly rebuild the inflation narrative, while a build would likely produce only temporary relief unless it is accompanied by a broader de-escalation in the Gulf. Claims, meanwhile, matter mostly as a check on whether the labor market is finally softening enough to offset the inflation shock.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+2)

Monday, 23^rd March 2026

• No high impact event

Tuesday, 24^th March 2026

• 15:45 – United States (USD) – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar), forecast 51.6
• 15:45 – United States (USD) – S&P Global Services PMI (Mar), forecast 51.7

Wednesday, 25^th March 2026

• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – CPI (YoY) (Feb), forecast 3.0 percent
• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Crude Oil Inventories, previous 6.156M

Thursday, 26^th March 2026

• All Day – India (INR) – Ram Navami holiday
• 14:20 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 205K

Friday, 27^th March 2026

• No high impact event

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch

US500, Daily Chart

Current market trend and momentum

The index has rolled over from the 6,990 area and is now trading near 6,620. It has already broken below the 100 percent retracement at 6,727 and is pressing toward the 127.2 extension near 6,656 and the 161.8 extension near 6,565. Price is below the short- and medium-term moving averages, ROC is negative, PPO remains bearish, and implied volatility is rising from a low base. That points to an active corrective downtrend rather than a completed washout.

Main scenario

As long as the index stays below 6,727 and especially below 6,828, the base case remains for downside pressure toward 6,565 and then 6,464. Stable US PMIs, sticky yields, and persistent energy costs would keep that corrective phase intact.

Key levels

• Supports: 6,565, 6,464, 6,400 area
• Resistances: 6,727, 6,828, 6,928, 6,991

Alternative scenario

If PMIs disappoint enough to pull yields lower, or if there is a meaningful de-escalation headline from the Gulf, the index could recover above 6,727 and squeeze toward 6,828. A daily close above 6,828 would weaken the bearish continuation case.

GBPUSD, Daily Chart

Current market trend and momentum

GBPUSD is trading near 1.3433 and has rebounded from the lower half of a descending channel. Price is back above the 61.8 percent retracement at 1.3382 and is testing the 1.3483 resistance zone, while the 100-day weighted average still acts as an overhead barrier. ROC has turned modestly positive, PPO is recovering, and implied volatility remains elevated. That suggests improving momentum, but still within a corrective rather than fully bullish structure.

Main scenario

The base case is for a choppy recovery while price holds above 1.3382 and especially above 1.3281. If UK CPI prints firm and the dollar softens slightly, GBPUSD can extend toward 1.3483 and then 1.3555. Gains are likely to remain measured because the UK still faces imported energy inflation and weak growth.

Key levels

• Supports: 1.3382, 1.3281, 1.3218
• Resistances: 1.3483, 1.3555, 1.3647, 1.3748

Alternative scenario

If UK CPI underwhelms or US yields push higher again after PMIs and claims, GBPUSD can fail below 1.3483 and drift back toward 1.3382. A break below 1.3281 would put the broader descending channel back in control and reopen downside toward 1.3218.

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