Errante’s The Week Ahead: 16^th – 20^th March 2026 

Highlights of the week 

• War driven oil shock keeps inflation risk elevated. 

• Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB, and BoC all land in one week. 

• USD stays supported while equities remain fragile. 

What Now 

Markets are entering the week in a war driven inflation regime rather than a normal growth cycle. Higher oil prices, disrupted Gulf supply, and delayed Fed easing expectations are keeping the dollar and yields supported while pressuring risk assets. The market is treating inflation as the first order driver and growth as secondary unless data weaken sharply. 

Wednesday is the key macro day. US PPI, the Fed decision, Fed projections, Eurozone CPI, BoC, and crude inventories all arrive together. A firm US inflation signal combined with a hawkish Fed would support the dollar further and keep front end yields elevated. Even hawkish holds from the ECB and BoE may not help their currencies much because Europe and the UK remain vulnerable to imported energy inflation and weaker growth. 

Thursday adds another dense policy layer through the BoJ, SNB, BoE, and ECB. JPY remains conflicted because higher US yields support USDJPY, but intervention risk is rising. CHF should remain defensive, though SNB resistance to excessive franc strength may smooth the move. Overall, the cleanest macro bias remains firmer USD, sticky to higher yields, supported oil, and fragile equities unless there is a clear de-escalation headline. 

The war remains the first order driver and the calendar is the amplifier. The most likely pattern is a firm dollar, sticky to higher yields, supported oil, and fragile equities, unless inflation cools more clearly or geopolitical pressure eases. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+2) 

Monday, 16^th March 2026 

• No high impact event 

Tuesday, 17^th March 2026 

• 05:30 – Australia (AUD) – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar), forecast 3.85 percent 

Wednesday, 18^th March 2026 

• 12:00 – Eurozone (EUR) – CPI (YoY) (Feb), forecast 1.9 percent, previous 1.7 percent 

• 14:30 – United States (USD) – PPI (MoM) (Feb), forecast 0.5 percent 

• 15:45 – Canada (CAD) – BoC Interest Rate Decision, forecast 2.25 percent, previous 2.25 percent 

• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Crude Oil Inventories, previous 3.824M 

• 20:00 – United States (USD) – Fed Interest Rate Decision, forecast 3.75 percent, previous 3.75 percent 

• 20:00 – United States (USD) – FOMC Economic Projections 

• 20:00 – United States (USD) – FOMC Statement 

• 20:30 – United States (USD) – FOMC Press Conference 

Thursday, 19^th March 2026 

• 05:00 – Japan (JPY) – BoJ Interest Rate Decision, forecast 0.75 percent, previous 0.75 percent 

• 10:30 – Switzerland (CHF) – SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1), forecast 0.00 percent, previous 0.00 percent 

• 14:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar), forecast 3.75 percent, previous 3.75 percent 

• 14:30 – United States (USD) – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar), previous 16.3 

• 14:30 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 213K 

• 15:15 – Eurozone (EUR) – Deposit Facility Rate (Mar), forecast 2.00 percent, previous 2.00 percent 

• 15:15 – Eurozone (EUR) – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar), forecast 2.15 percent, previous 2.15 percent 

• 15:45 – Eurozone (EUR) – ECB Press Conference 

• 16:00 – United States (USD) – New Home Sales (Jan), forecast 745K 

Friday, 20^th March 2026 

• All Day – Japan (JPY) – Vernal Equinox holiday 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

DXY, Daily Chart 

Current market trend and momentum 

The dollar index is trading near 99.93 after a strong recovery from the 95.55 base. Price has pushed above 99.68 resistance and is testing the 127.2 extension near 100.01. The short-term structure is bullish, with prices above the rising near term trend line and above both the 10 day and 40-day weighted averages. ROC is positive, PPO is in a bullish recovery phase, and the implied volatility oscillator is cooling. This points to trend rebuilding, though price is now entering an important resistance zone. 

Main scenario 

As long as DXY holds above 99.23 and especially above 98.49, the bias remains for an extension toward 100.01 and then 100.42. A firm PPI print and hawkish Fed tone would be the clearest catalysts for that move. 

Key levels 

• Supports: 99.23, 98.49, 97.99 

• Resistances: 100.01, 100.42, 100.87 

Alternative scenario 

If PPI cools, the Fed sounds less hawkish than feared, and risk sentiment stabilizes, DXY could fail near 100.00 and slip back toward 99.23. A break below 98.49 would reopen a broader consolidation phase. 

USDCHF, Daily Chart 

Current market trend and momentum 

USDCHF is trading around 0.7863 after rebounding from the 0.7747 base and reclaiming 0.7828. Price is now pressing directly into the 0.7878 pivot. Momentum has improved, with ROC turning positive and PPO rising through a recovery phase. Price has also moved back above the short-term moving average cluster. Implied volatility remains elevated, which means the move is constructive but still defensive and headline sensitive. 

Main scenario 

The base case is for further upside while price holds above 0.7828 and especially above 0.7779. If the Fed stays hawkish and oil driven risk aversion persists, USDCHF can clear 0.7878 and extend toward 0.7914 and 0.7959. 

Key levels 

• Supports: 0.7828, 0.7779, 0.7747 

• Resistances: 0.7878, 0.7914, 0.7959, 0.8009 

Alternative scenario 

If the Fed underwhelms dollar bulls or if haven demand shifts more strongly into CHF, the pair can fail near 0.7878 and slide back toward 0.7828. A break below 0.7779 would weaken the bullish recovery case. 

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