Highlights of the week 

• War risk keeps inflation pressure elevated. 
• Fed minutes and US inflation data drive the week. 
• The dollar keeps a relative macro advantage. 

What Now 

The market is still trading a war driven inflation shock rather than a normal late cycle data sequence. Brent’s recent surge and continued supply disruption risk keep energy, yields, and inflation expectations tightly linked. That leaves the macro hierarchy unchanged. Energy first, rates second, growth third. 

Monday’s ISM services data will show whether the US economy is still absorbing higher energy costs without cracking. If services stay firm and price pressures remain sticky, that should keep front end yields supported and leave the dollar on solid footing. 

Tuesday and Wednesday broaden the map. Durable goods will test whether higher energy costs are already feeding into capex demand, while the RBNZ decision is the only live central bank event of the week. Wednesday’s 10-year auction and Fed minutes will matter, but mainly through their impact on yields.  

Then Thursday and Friday bring the real macro core with Core PCE and CPI. If inflation prints come in firm again, markets are likely to push rate cut expectations further out, which would support the dollar and keep pressure on risk assets. 

The international side matters mainly through relative vulnerability. Europe and the UK remain more exposed to imported energy pressure than the US. Even if local data stabilize, the larger macro story still works against durable outperformance while oil stays high, and the war outlook remains unresolved. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, April 6, 2026 

• All Day – Germany (EUR) – Easter holiday 

• All Day – United Kingdom (GBP) – Easter holiday 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Mar), previous 63.0 

• 17:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar), previous 56.1 

Tuesday, April 7, 2026 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb), previous 0.0 percent 

Wednesday, April 8, 2026 

• 05:00 – New Zealand (NZD) – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, previous 2.25 percent 

• 20:00 – United States (USD) – 10-Year Note Auction, previous 4.217 percent 

• 21:00 – United States (USD) – FOMC Meeting Minutes 

Thursday, April 9, 2026 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb), previous 0.4 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb), previous 3.1 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – GDP (QoQ) (Q4), forecast 0.7 percent, previous 4.4 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims 

• 20:00 – United States (USD) – 30-Year Bond Auction, previous 4.871 percent 

Friday, April 10, 2026 

• 09:00 – Germany (EUR) – German CPI (MoM) (Mar), forecast 1.1 percent, previous 0.2 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – CPI (MoM) (Mar), previous 0.3 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar), previous 0.2 percent 

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – CPI (YoY) (Mar), previous 2.4 percent