
Errante’s Week Ahead: September 14-18, 2026
Highlights of the week
- Fed decision and projections will drive USD and yields.
- UK CPI and BoE policy will test GBP rate support.
- A potential BoJ hike puts JPY and carry trades in focus.
What Now
Policy divergence dominates the week. The Fed has held rates at 3.50-3.75 percent since December, but August payrolls rebounded to 162K from 21K in July, making inflation the key constraint on its next move. US consumption has weakened as retail sales moved from +1.7 percent in March to +1.0 percent in May, +0.2 percent in June and -0.6 percent in July; another weak August print could offset hawkish Fed signals and pressure USD.
UK inflation fell from 3.3 percent in March to 2.6 percent in June before rebounding to 2.9 percent in July, leaving the BoE cautious at 3.75 percent.
Meanwhile, the BoJ has lifted rates from 0.75 percent in April to 1.0 percent, with a 1.25 percent move now in focus. A hike would support JPY and increase carry-trade unwind risk.
Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3)
Monday, September 14, 2026
- All Day – India (INR) – Ganesh Chaturthi holiday
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
- No major events scheduled.
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
- 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – CPI YoY for August, previous 2.90 percent
- 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core Retail Sales MoM for August, previous -0.30 percent
- 15:30 – United States (USD) – Retail Sales MoM for August, previous -0.60 percent
- 21:00 – United States (USD) – Fed Interest Rate Decision, previous 3.75 percent
- 21:00 – United States (USD) – FOMC Economic Projections
- 21:30 – United States (USD) – FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, September 17, 2026
- 12:00 – Eurozone (EUR) – CPI YoY Final for August, forecast 3.30 percent, previous 2.90 percent
- 14:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – BoE Interest Rate Decision for September, previous 3.75 percent
- 15:30 – United States (USD) – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September, previous 47.4
- 15:30 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, September 18, 2026
- 06:00 – Japan (JPY) – BoJ Interest Rate Decision, forecast 1.25 percent, previous 1.00 percent