Core PCE, RBA Minutes and Payroll Revisions Drive FX Markets

Highlights of the week

• Core PCE and GDP will drive USD and Fed pricing.
• RBA minutes and Ifo will guide AUD and EUR.
• Canada GDP and US payroll revisions headline Friday risk.

What Now

The dollar remains vulnerable as US inflation and growth soften. Another subdued Core PCE print would reinforce a Fed hold and support bonds and gold, while renewed inflation would favor USD. Germany’s improving Ifo could support EUR, and hawkish RBA minutes would help AUD. Friday’s US payroll benchmark revision is the main wildcard, with another large downward adjustment likely to deepen labor-market concerns and pressure the dollar.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3)

Monday, August 24, 2026

• No major events scheduled.

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

• 04:30 – Australia (AUD) – RBA Meeting Minutes
• 11:00 – Germany (EUR) – Ifo Business Climate for August, previous 86.6

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Core PCE Price Index MoM for July, previous 0.10 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Durable Goods Orders MoM for July, previous 0.30 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Second Estimate for Q2, forecast 1.50 percent, previous 2.10 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Personal Income MoM for July, previous 0.20 percent
• 15:30 – United States (USD) – Personal Spending MoM for July, previous 0.30 percent

Thursday, August 27, 2026

• 09:00 – Germany (EUR) – GfK Consumer Confidence for September, previous -29.6

Friday, August 28, 2026

• 08:00 – Japan (JPY) – Consumer Confidence for August, previous 34.9
• 09:45 – France (EUR) – Inflation Rate YoY Preliminary for August, previous 2.10 percent
• 15:30 – Canada (CAD) – GDP Growth Rate Annualized for Q2, previous -0.10 percent
• 15:30 – Canada (CAD) – GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Q2, previous 0.00 percent
• 17:00 – United States (USD) – Nonfarm Payrolls Annual Benchmark Revision Preliminary, previous -911K