Errante’s The Week Ahead: 30^th March – 3^rd April 2026

Highlights of the week

• War driven energy risk keeps inflation pressure elevated.
• Tuesday and Wednesday carry the main macro data cluster.
• Friday payrolls land into thin Good Friday liquidity.

What Now

Markets are still trading an inflation first regime, with the war and energy prices driving the macro narrative more than normal growth data. The key question is whether this week’s data confirm that yields should stay elevated and the dollar firm, or whether softer US activity and labor prints are finally strong enough to challenge that view.

Tuesday is the main cross asset day. China PMI, UK GDP, Eurozone CPI, and a full US slate on confidence, JOLTS, and Chicago PMI arrive together. For Europe and the UK, the problem is that local data are now competing with a much bigger imported energy shock. Even if inflation stays contained, the euro and sterling may struggle if markets keep focusing on weaker growth and higher energy dependence.

Wednesday then turns the focus fully to the US. ADP, retail sales, manufacturing PMIs, and ISM prices will test whether the US still looks resilient enough to justify restrictive pricing. In the current regime, stronger data and firm prices would likely support the dollar and keep equities under pressure. Weaker data only matter materially if they pull yields lower.

Friday payrolls are the final and most important event, but they arrive during Good Friday conditions when liquidity will be thinner across major markets. That raises the risk of exaggerated moves in FX and rates. The broad bias still favors dollar resilience, fragile equities, and continued sensitivity to oil and yields.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3)

Monday, 30^th March 2026

• 15:00 – Germany (EUR) – German CPI (MoM) (Mar), previous 0.2 percent

Tuesday, 31^st March 2026

• 04:30 – China (CNY) – Manufacturing PMI (Mar), previous 49.0
• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – GDP (QoQ) (Q4), previous 0.1 percent
• 09:00 – United Kingdom (GBP) – GDP (YoY) (Q4), forecast 1.0 percent, previous 1.3 percent
• 12:00 – Eurozone (EUR) – CPI (YoY) (Mar), previous 1.9 percent
• 17:45 – United States (USD) – Chicago PMI (Mar), previous 57.7
• 18:00 – United States (USD) – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar), previous 91.2
• 18:00 – United States (USD) – JOLTS Job Openings (Feb), previous 6.946M

Wednesday, 1^st April 2026

• 16:15 – United States (USD) – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar), previous 63K
• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb), previous negative 0.2 percent
• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb), previous 0.0 percent
• 17:45 – United States (USD) – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar), forecast 52.4, previous 51.6
• 18:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar), previous 52.4
• 18:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar), previous 70.5

Thursday, 2^nd April 2026

• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, 3^rd April 2026

• All Day – United States (USD) – Good Friday holiday
• All Day – United Kingdom (GBP) – Good Friday holiday
• All Day – Germany (EUR) – Good Friday holiday
• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar), previous 0.4 percent
• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar), previous negative 92K
• 16:30 – United States (USD) – Unemployment Rate (Mar), previous 4.4 percent
• 17:45 – United States (USD) – S&P Global Services PMI (Mar), forecast 51.1, previous 51.7
• 18:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Mar), previous 63.0
• 18:00 – United States (USD) – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar), previous 56.1

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch

USDJPY, Daily Chart

Current market trend and momentum

USDJPY remains in a clear medium-term uptrend and is trading near 159.84 after recovering from the 157.60 area. Price is holding above the short-term weighted average and well above the longer-term trend average, which keeps the broader structure constructive. The pair has now returned to the prior high zone around 159.99 and is pressing the upper edge of the recent advance. PPO remains positive, but the histogram has flattened, ROC is near neutral, and implied volatility is elevated rather than collapsing. That mix points to trend persistence, but with momentum becoming more selective as price approaches a breakout area.

Main scenario

The base case remains bullish while price holds above 159.01 and especially above 157.60. A sustained break above 159.99 would confirm continuation and open the way toward the extension cluster at 160.51, 160.83, and 161.30. In practical terms, the pair is still trading as a buy the dip structure unless it loses the latest swing base.

Key levels

• Supports: 159.01, 157.60, 156.78
• Resistances: 159.99, 160.51, 160.83, 161.30, 162.17

Alternative scenario

If the pair fails to secure acceptance above the 159.99 area and slips back below 159.01, the move would start to look like another rejection from the top of the range rather than a clean breakout. In that case, price could rotate back toward 157.60, and a break there would shift the structure into a broader correction instead of trend continuation.

EURUSD, Daily Chart

Current market trend and momentum

EURUSD remains in a broader downtrend and is trading near 1.1509 after failing to hold the mid-March rebound. Price is still below the descending channel resistance, below the 100-day weighted average, and below the key retracement zone around 1.1529 to 1.1582. The channel structure is intact, and the latest bounce has so far been corrective rather than impulsive. ROC has improved from the lows and PPO is trying to stabilize, but both still sit within a weak trend backdrop. Implied volatility remains elevated, which suggests the pair is still vulnerable to sharp directional moves rather than stable range trading.

Main scenario

The base case remains bearish while price stays below 1.1529 and especially below 1.1582. Under that structure, the pair can continue to drift lower toward 1.1493, then 1.1445, and potentially 1.1393. The broader technical message is that rebounds into resistance are still vulnerable to selling unless the pair can break the descending channel and reclaim the main retracement cluster.

Key levels

• Supports: 1.1493, 1.1445, 1.1393, 1.1336
• Resistances: 1.1529, 1.1582, 1.1667

Alternative scenario

If EURUSD can reclaim 1.1529 on a closing basis and then push through 1.1582, the current rebound would gain more credibility and shift the pair from corrective bounce to short term base building. In that case, the next upside target would be the 1.1667 area, and the bearish channel would begin to lose control.

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