Errante’s The Week Ahead: 28^th April  – 2^nd May, 2025 

Highlights of the Week: 

• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri): Key labor data (forecast: +129K) could confirm U.S. job market cooling and reinforce Fed rate cut bets. 

• U.S. GDP & Core PCE (Wed): Q1 GDP (forecast: 0.4%) and Core PCE inflation will test growth and inflation outlooks. 

• Bank of Japan Decision (Thu): BoJ policy statement and press conference in focus for yen guidance amid global inflation concerns. 

What Now? 

As we head into the final days of April, global markets are grappling with heightened uncertainty driven by escalating US-China trade tensions, softer US economic data, and a historic surge in gold prices. Gold briefly touched an all-time high near $3500/oz before undergoing a technical correction, sparked by profit-taking and a rebound in US yields. The safe-haven demand for gold reflects broader risk aversion as the Federal Reserve faces mounting political pressure, with President Trump reportedly pushing for faster rate cuts and seeking to oust Chair Powell. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below the psychological 100 mark last week for the first time in a year, testing key support levels amid aggressive Fed rate cut bets and weaker-than-expected data. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains anchored below 3.80%, signaling persistent economic concerns despite recent equity market resilience. US equities remain broadly range-bound but vulnerable, with tech stocks showing signs of exhaustion. 

In the eurozone, preliminary inflation figures will guide ECB policy expectations, while in Japan, the Bank of Japan is set for a pivotal meeting as markets look for potential policy shifts amid yen weakness. China’s PMI data will offer fresh insights into manufacturing stability, crucial for gauging global demand. 

This week’s key themes revolve around US labor market data, inflation signals from PCE and CPI readings, central bank meetings in Japan, and GDP prints. These releases will likely set the tone for risk sentiment into May. 

Upcoming Data and Events (GMT+3): 

Monday, April 28 

• All Day – CAD Federal Election: Canadian political landscape update, potential CAD volatility. 

Tuesday, April 29 

• 5:00 PM – USD JOLTS Job Openings: Key gauge of US labor market slack; softer figures could reinforce dovish Fed bets. 

Wednesday, April 30 

• 4:30 AM – AUD CPI q/q, y/y, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q: Australian inflation readings will shape RBA’s rate path. 

• 4:30 AM – CNY Manufacturing PMI: Fresh gauge of China’s factory activity amid global demand headwinds. 

• All Day – EUR German Prelim CPI m/m: Eurozone’s largest economy inflation print, pivotal for ECB. 

• 3:15 PM – USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Leading indicator for Friday’s NFP; labor market cooling expected. 

• 3:30 PM – CAD GDP m/m: Canadian economic momentum check. 

• 3:30 PM – USD Advance GDP q/q & Employment Cost Index: Early Q1 growth signal and labor cost pressures. 

• 5:00 PM – USD Core PCE Price Index m/m: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, critical for near-term policy outlook. 

Thursday, May 1 

• Tentative – JPY BOJ Policy Meeting & Press Conference: Markets await any policy tweaks to address yen weakness. 

• 3:30 PM – USD Unemployment Claims: Ongoing labor market health check. 

• 5:00 PM – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: Key barometer for US industrial sector resilience. 

Friday, May 2 

• 3:30 PM – USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings: Labor market’s headline indicators; any surprise could sway Fed rate expectations. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

DXY (US Dollar Index) – Weekly Chart 

Technical Outlook:  

The DXY has decisively broken below the psychological 100 level, testing long-term horizontal support at 99.58 and 97.68. The break of the 2024 lows highlights a bearish trend reinforced by a declining RSI (30) approaching oversold territory, and a MACD histogram deep in negative territory. Any rebound faces stiff resistance at 103.19 and 104.68. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 103.19, 104.68, 110.17 

• Support: 99.58, 97.68, 94.62 

Bias:  

Bearish below 100, with scope for further downside towards 97.68 

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart 

Technical Outlook:  

USD/JPY continues its corrective decline, holding below the 146.53 neckline of the prior ascending wedge. Price action is pressing the 143.38 support, with the next major downside pivot near 140.24. RSI at 36 and MACD trending lower support continued bearish momentum. Only a close above 146.53 would ease downside pressure. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 146.53, 151.20 

• Support: 143.38, 140.24, 137.24 

Bias:  

Bearish unless price reclaims 146.53 

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

We are Errante. Trading made personal.