Central Bank Minutes: The Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release their meeting minutes, offering insights into its dovish monetary stance.
Flash PMIs: Key indicators from France, Germany, the UK, and the US will provide critical insights into the health of these major economies.
Jackson Hole Symposium: A gathering of central bankers, economists, and policymakers that could significantly impact currency markets.
Now What?
As we enter Errante’s The Week Ahead: 19th – 23rd August 2024, global markets are poised to react to a series of pivotal events that could shape currency movements and overall market sentiment. The RBA’s meeting minutes, released early in the week, are expected to reflect a dovish tone amid ongoing economic challenges. This could put additional pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD), especially if the minutes suggest that the RBA is more inclined to lower interest rates in the near future.
The Jackson Hole Symposium, starting on Thursday, will be the focal point for investors and traders. This annual event, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, brings together central bankers and economists from around the world to discuss long-term economic trends and monetary policy. The symposium’s discussions and speeches can have significant implications for global currencies, particularly if they signal shifts in monetary policy from major central banks. Markets will be keenly watching for any hints from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or other central bank officials regarding future interest rate paths.
In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech on Friday will be closely monitored. With recent data showing signs of cooling inflation, there is growing speculation that the BoE might consider pausing or even cutting rates in its upcoming meetings. This possibility could cap further rises in the GBP, especially if Bailey’s comments reinforce this dovish outlook.
Market Events and Announcements
The times below are GMT +3.
Monday, August 19, 2024:
No important event
Tuesday, August 20, 2024:
4:30 AM – AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes will offer insights into the RBA’s decision-making process and its outlook on economic conditions. A dovish tone could weigh on the AUD.
12:30 PM – CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks: His comments could provide guidance on Switzerland’s monetary policy direction.
3:30 PM – CAD CPI m/m: An important measure of inflation in Canada, which will influence the Bank of Canada’s future policy moves.
3:30 PM – CAD Retail Sales m/m: Offers insight into consumer spending in Canada, a key driver of economic growth.
Wednesday, August 21, 2024:
9:00 PM – FOMC Meeting Minutes: Provides insights into upcoming rate cuts that can shake USD and major pairs.
Thursday, August 22, 2024:
10:15 AM – EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI: Indicates the health of France’s manufacturing sector.
10:30 AM – EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: Provides a gauge of the German manufacturing sector, the largest in the Eurozone.
11:00 AM – EUR Eurozone Flash Services PMI: Reflects the overall performance of the services sector across the Eurozone.
11:30 AM – GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI: Offers insights into the UK’s manufacturing performance.
4:45 PM – USD Flash Manufacturing PMI: An early indicator of the economic health of the US manufacturing sector.
4:45 PM – USD Flash Services PMI: Provides insights into the US services sector, a major contributor to the economy.
5:00 PM – USD Existing Home Sales: Tracks the sale of previously owned homes in the US, an important indicator of economic health.
Day 1 – Jackson Hole Symposium: Central bankers and economists gather to discuss key economic issues and policies. The symposium’s insights can significantly impact global markets.
Friday, August 23, 2024:
Day 2 – Jackson Hole Symposium: Continues with speeches and discussions that could influence market expectations around global monetary policy.
3:30 PM – CAD Retail Sales: Provides aprimary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity
3:30 PM – CAD Core Retail Sales: Provide a gauge of change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
10:00 PM – GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks: Governor Bailey’s comments will be closely watched for clues on the Bank of England’s next steps, especially given the recent signs of cooling inflation.
Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch
Chart 1: Gold Weekly Chart
Gold has maintained its upward trajectory on the weekly chart, with buyers challenging the all-time high of $2483.76 as the US dollar weakens. If buyers manage to break this resistance, the next target could be the 1.414% Fibonacci extension at $2537.80. Continued upward momentum, fueled by ongoing recession fears and the potential for a rate cut in the September Federal Reserve meeting, could drive gold towards $2564.43 and even $2614.30.
Conversely, breaking below the 2353.22 support level at the one-month low will trigger a bearish trend in the mid-term.
Impactful Events: Flash PMIs and Jackson Hole Symposium will be crucial. If economic data indicates a slowdown or the symposium signals dovishness, gold could see increased demand as a safe-haven asset.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $2483.76, $2537.80, $2614.30
Support: $2353.22; a break below this level could shift the outlook to bearish.
Chart 2: Bitcoin Daily Chart
Bitcoin sellers broke below the critical support at $57,653.31 last week, placing the cryptocurrency in a bearish trend. Sustained movement below this key level could see prices drop towards $53,479.42 and $50,899.96. Reaching these targets could position sellers to test the one-month low at $49,150.
The bearish trend remains valid as long as Bitcoin trades below the resistance at $61,827.20.
Impactful Events: The Jackson Hole Symposium could influence Bitcoin, especially if central bankers signal shifts in monetary policy that affect risk sentiment.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $61,827.20
Support: $57,653.31, $53,479.42, $50,899.96
Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante.
If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].
We are Errante. Trading made personal.
Share with a Friend
Risk Warning: Our products are traded on margin and carry a high level of risk and it is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Full disclosure.
We use cookies on this site to improve your website experience, enhancing also site navigation and experience, analysis of site usage and assistance in our marketing efforts. By clicking “Save Changes” or continuing to use this site you consent to our use of cookies. To find out more, read our Privacy Policy and Cookies Policy
Functional Cookies
Functional Cookies help a site work well, they enable additional features which can make the user experience better.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Analytical and Promotional Cookies
Analytical cookies are used to determine usage of a site, they may track individual users, but only to the extent to allow a proper user journey through the site. They are not used for targeting adverts.
Promotional cookies keep track of information to tailor advertisements to you and to measure their success. This includes using previously collected information about your interests to select ads, processing data about what advertisements were shown, how often they were shown, when and where they were shown, and whether you took any action related to the advertisement, including for example clicking an ad or making a purchase.
Please enable Strictly Necessary Cookies first so that we can save your preferences!
Cookie Policy
Cookies are small pieces of information, normally consisting of just letters and numbers, which are automatically stored on your computer (or any other devise used to enter the Internet) when you visit a website and offer an insight your activity and preferences.
Our Website uses cookies to help us improve our website performance and your browsing experience. Please refer to this Policy in order to get a better understanding of what cookies our Website uses; how do we use them and what is their purpose.
العربية
