Errante’s The Week Ahead: 14th – 18th April 2025 

Highlights of the Week: 

• BoC and ECB Policy Meetings: Crucial rate guidance expected from both central banks amid slowing growth. 

• UK and Canada Inflation Data: Key releases will test recent dovish pricing and weigh on GBP and CAD. 

• Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: Anticipated remarks could shape market expectations for mid-year Fed cuts. 

What Now? 

Global financial markets enter the week of April 14 under the weight of escalating geopolitical tensions, a strengthening US-China trade war, and rising investor anxiety over central bank policy pivots. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped to 102.4 as traders increased bets on Fed rate cuts in response to deteriorating macro data and deepening trade disruptions. 

Meanwhile, gold soared to a record high above $3,200/oz, driven by safe-haven flows amid equity market volatility and geopolitical risks. Bond markets signaled heightened stress as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields declined toward 3.85% last week, while yield curves remain deeply inverted. The S&P 500 snapped a five-week rally, closing lower as tech stocks underperformed. 

In Europe, sentiment is fragile as the ECB is expected to cut rates later this year. The EUR is consolidating while core Eurozone inflation trends lower. In the UK, persistent services inflation and softer labor data fuel speculation that the BoE may signal a dovish turn in the coming weeks. 

This week brings critical inflation and employment data, BoC and ECB monetary policy meetings, and commentary from Fed Chair Powell, all of which could define the monetary policy tone into Q2. 

Upcoming Data and Events (GMT+3): 

Monday, April 14: 

• No high impact view 

Tuesday, April 15: 

• 9:00 AM – GBP Claimant Count Change: Labor market gauge, watched for early signs of employment softening. 

• 3:30 PM – CAD CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y: Crucial read on Canadian inflation trajectory; softness could validate BoC rate cut expectations. 

Wednesday, April 16: 

• 9:00 AM – GBP – CPI y/y: A key inflation reading that will influence BoE’s forward guidance. 

• 3:30 PM – USD – Core & Headline Retail Sales: Barometer of U.S. consumer strength amid fiscal uncertainty. 

• 4:45 PM – CAD – BoC Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement Markets expect BoC to keep rates unchanged.  

• 17:30 PM – CAD – BOC Press Conference: await signals of a shift toward easing. 

• 8:15 PM – USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Potentially pivotal moment for global risk sentiment and USD trajectory. 

Thursday, April 17: 

• 1:45 AM – NZD – CPI q/q: A decisive factor for RBNZ’s monetary path. 

• 4:30 AM – AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate: Key labor data amid macro headwinds. 

• 3:15 PM – EUR Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement: 25 bps rate cut expected; ECB likely to remain cautious. 

• 3:30 PM – USD Unemployment Claims: Reflects near-term labor market dynamics. 

• 3:45 PM – EUR ECB Press Conference: Guidance on inflation risks and policy flexibility. 

Friday, April 18: 

• No high-impact events scheduled 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart 

USD/JPY remains under bearish pressure after decisively breaking the long-term ascending trendlines. The pair is now below the last market bottom at 146.53 and testing multi-month support at 142.64. The next confluences are seen at 127.2% (145.26), 161.8% (143.65), and 200% (141.86). RSI at 33 reflects almost oversold pressure, and MACD remains negative. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 148.31, 151.20 

• Support: 145.26, 143.65, 141.86, 138.98 

Alternative Scenario:  

Bearish continuation favored unless price reclaims 148.31.  

Impactful Events: 

• U.S. Retail Sales 

• Fed Chair Powell’s Speech 

EUR/CAD – Weekly Chart 

EUR/CAD bulls continue their effort to extend the rally and break above the last top at 1.5856, marking a bullish continuation within its broader uptrend. The rally is reinforced by strong RSI momentum (69), suggesting sustained buying interest, and a rising MACD histogram that confirms underlying trend strength. Price is pressing toward the 127.2% (1.6000) and 161.8% (1.6184) Fibonacci extensions if buyers manage to clear the last top. However, with the ECB poised to shift dovish, potential verbal intervention or a rate cut may dampen momentum and bring profit-taking near multi-year resistance highs. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.6000, 1.6184, 1.6386 

• Support: 1.5856, 1.5654, 1.5326 

Alternative Scenario:  

Bullish as long as price holds above 1.5654 

Impactful Events: 

• BoC CPI Data & Press Conference 

• ECB Rate Decision 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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