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• The Week Ahead: 25th – 29th March 2024 

The Week Ahead: 25th – 29th March 2024 

Overview for the Week Ahead 

Highlights of the Week 

• US consumer confidence and inflation numbers to dictate bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. 
• Inflation numbers from Australia and Japan could influence the RBA and BoJ’s policy goals. 
• Central bank commentary warrants investor attention after the latest round of interest rate decisions. 

The headline event for the week will be the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation) but given that it is released on Good Friday at 14:30 GMT+2, the response to this release could be minimal. The market consensus at the time of writing indicates we will see a slight softening in the MoM print: a rise of +0.3% in February from +0.4% in January, while the YoY release (also for February) is expected to rise +2.8%, matching January.  

At the headline level, PCE data (MoM) is anticipated to show a slight increase of +0.4% in February from January’s +0.3% reading, along with the YoY print expected to also show a marginal increase from +2.4% to +2.5%. You will recall that the FOMC meeting wrapped up last week, leaving the benchmark lending rate at 5.25%-5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting (this is the highest rate in more than two decades).  

Although a no-change was widely expected, the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed that Fed officials continue to foresee three rate cuts this year (there was speculation of a potential downshift to two rate cuts, given the latest batch of inflation numbers). The March economic projections also revealed an upward revision in Core PCE inflation for 2024 from 2.4% (December 2023 projection) to 2.6%, though FOMC participants were unchanged in their projections for 2025 and 2026 at 2.2% and 2.0% (the Fed’s inflation target), respectively. 

Fed Chair Powell is on the calendar to speak on Friday. 

For the AUD, consumer sentiment numbers for March will draw interest on Tuesday. A pullback in consumer confidence could support bets on an RBA rate cut. However, investors must consider the sub-components, including sentiment toward the economy and time to buy a major household item. 

The CPI Monthly Indicator (Wed) and Australian retail sales figures for February (Thurs) will impact the Aussie dollar. Tighter labor market conditions and a pickup in consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation. However, consumer price trends need consideration. 

In March, the RBA delivered a less hawkish stance on monetary policy. However, a jump in household spending could change the narrative. 

Other than this, it is a relatively quiet week. 

Have your trading charts ready this week! 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT +2. 

Monday 25^th March 

• No High Impact Events 

Tuesday 26^th March 

• 16.00 – US – Consumer Confidence 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Wednesday 27^th March 

• 02.30 – Australia – CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

Thursday 28^th March 

• 12.00 – US – FOMC Member Waller Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 14.30 – Canada – GDP m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

• 14.30 – US – Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 16.00 – US – Pending Home Sales m/m, Revised UoM Inflation Sentiment 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 29^th March 

• 14.30 – US – Core PCE Price Index m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 17.30 – US – Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

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