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• The Week Ahead: 12th – 16th February 2024 

The Week Ahead: 12th – 16th February 2024 

Overview for the Week Ahead 

Highlights of the Week 

• The US CPI Report could impact investor bets on a May Fed rate cut. 
• UK economic indicators may leave the Bank of England hawks in the driving seat. 
• Economic indicators from Australia and Japan will influence RBA and BoJ policy intentions. 

On Monday, consumer inflation expectations will draw investor interest before the US CPI Report. Expectations of sticky inflation could trigger buyer demand for the greenback. However, the US CPI Report will have more impact. 

The US CPI Report will take center stage on Tuesday. Hotter-than-expected numbers could push back bets on a Fed rate cut to June. 

US jobless claims and retail sales figures warrant investor attention on Thursday. Tight labor market conditions and upward trends in consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation. 

On Friday, producer price figures for January also need consideration. Producer price trends reflect the demand environment. Producers increase prices in a high-demand environment and pass prices onto consumers. 

It is a big week for the Pound. On Tuesday, UK labor market figures will put the GBP under the spotlight. An increase in the UK unemployment rate and softer wage growth figures could enable the BoE to begin discussions about rate cuts. 

However, UK inflation numbers on Wednesday also need consideration. A pickup in the annual inflation rate and hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers could leave the BoE hawks in the driving seat. 

On Thursday, Q4 GDP figures will impact buyer demand for the Pound. A more marked quarter-on-quarter contraction and a hawkish Bank of England could raise expectations of a prolonged UK recession. 

UK retail sales figures for January will also garner investor interest on Friday. A larger-than-expected increase in retail sales could fuel demand-driven inflation and delay BoE discussions about rate cuts. 

Investors must also consider Bank of England commentary. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Mon/Wed) and Chief Economist Huw Pill (Fri) will speak. Monetary Policy Committee members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann will be in focus on Thursday. 

On Tuesday, consumer and business confidence numbers will influence the buyer appetite for the Aussie Dollar. Consumer confidence figures could have more impact. A pickup in consumer confidence could signal an upward trend in consumer spending. Consumer spending influences demand-driven inflation and the RBA interest rate path. 

However, labor market data for January and consumer inflation expectations could have more impact on Thursday. Tight labor market conditions could support wage growth and consumer spending. 

Beyond the numbers, RBA Board Member Kohler is on the calendar to speak. Views on inflation, the economy, and the RBA interest rate trajectory would move the dial. 

On Tuesday, business inflation expectation numbers for Q1 will impact the buyer demand for the Kiwi Dollar. Softer-than-expected inflation expectations could influence the RBNZ interest rate path. 

Have your trading charts ready this week! 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT +2. 

Monday 12^th February 

• 20.00 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

Tuesday 13^th February 

• 04.00 – New Zealand – Inflation Expectations q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

• 06.30 – Australia – RBA Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

• 09.00 – UK – Claimant Count Change 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

• 09.30 – Switzerland – CPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Wednesday 14^th February 

• 09.00 – UK – CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

• 17.00 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

Thursday 15^th February 

• 02.30 – Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

• 09.00 – UK – GDP m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 16^th February 

• 09.00 – UK – Retail Sales m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 17.00 – US – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

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